Davie Selke - 'Why on earth is he moving there' or 'Actually, makes quite a bit of sense'?

Even though it was announced on April 1st, David Selke is indeed going to move to Leipzig at the end of the season. While it may not be the most important or stunning transfer, it certainly is a controversial one. After all, a young and promising player is moving from a revitalized Bremen side, to mega-rich Leipzig - a 2.Bundesliga side. More importantly, a 2.Bundesliga side that will most probably remain a 2.BL side. While they are still in the race for promotion, Selke is consciously moving to a club that will not be in the top flight next year. So then; Why on earth is he moving there?

But let's discuss the clubs first. The move makes sense for both sides. For different reasons, of course. Bremen, financially not in a very comfortable position, will get a more than decent fee; believed to be around €8m plus potential success related bonus payments. In turn, they lose a player that has shown promise and quality, but that is also still incredibly young and whose peak is too far away from now. Only in September, Selke agreed to a contract extension until 2018. Back then, he was already much sought after due to his stellar performances at the under 19 Euros. It is entirely possible that even back in September, Bremen and Selke used this contract extension as an exit strategy. If it works out, Bremen and the player get the big money move, if not, the player still has the security of a long-term contract. Win-win. With 2018 in mind, Selke would still be only 23, it is questionable whether Bremen would ever be able to receive such a healthy fee. Especially not in relation to possible risks like injuries or the player simply not reaching his potential. As Bremen's general manager Eichin stated, the offer was "very attractive". He is right.

For Leipzig, a lot of the same reasons and arguments apply. High-potential player, young, will do even better in 2.Bundesliga  etc. All that without the financial gamble. While the fee is high, money really isn't an issue for the club promoting energy drinks. With Bremen, rejecting the fee would have resulted in anxious years, hoping for Selke to prove them right. With Leipzig, it will be more hopeful. High reward vs. acceptable loss. While the signing of Selke primarily is one for on-pitch-issues, it also sends a signal throughout Germany. 'We are not afraid to spend big and we are able to attract the best young talent'. After they initially decided to go their own way, RB Leipzig's transfer strategy is moving ever closer to the one of Hoffenheim - back when they were a 2.Bundesliga side. Omer Damari for €7m, Massimo Bruno for €5m and Selke for €8m. The rumour mill also has it that they've already agreed a deal to take Corinthians' talent Malcolm. It is a definite change in strategy. One that must have appealed to Selke - as they are essentially building a team that should be a lock for promotion next season. 

Finally, let's discuss the move from Selke's perspective. He has signed for 5 years until 2020. Even though Leipzig aren't a leading club at the moment, he must have great confidence that they will move towards that during those 5 years. What maybe cannot be ignored is that Davie Selke used to play for Hoffenheim. A team that has managed what Leipzig are attempting. A further factor would be that the man in charge of Hoffenheim then, plays a huge role at Leipzig now - Ralf Rangnick. Coming from him, the sales pitch must have been quite easy. While the player is moving backwards now, comparing the potential of both clubs, he is probably moving in the right direction. While fans may not like it, it is a move that makes sense - as long as Leipzig make the next step soon. What also speaks for Selke's decision is that he's only playing his first full season of Bundesliga football. 

A detour to a lower league, for one year, especially with the high upside in mind, might not seem that unattractive to him. It would certainly be different for an older, more established, potentially even internationally active player. Selke however is still just a prospect. This very fact may also be the last factor in his decision making. Football is his job. And while the football romantics among us still believe players should play for the love of the game alone, they actually have to make rational decisions as well. As mentioned, he's inexperienced and has no idea how good he'll eventually be. Moving to Leipzig is a safe bet. Contract over five years, certainly on significantly higher wages than at Bremen. An investment in the future and an insurance against injuries, loss of form or more generally, not reaching his potential. 

All things considered, it is a controversial move that makes sense for all three parties. Right now, neither party however knows whether they've made the correct decision.

Premier League's new TV deal and the Bundesliga

In light of the Premier League's new TV deal? Is the Bundesliga attractive enough?

It has been a couple of weeks since the Premier League announced its new, record breaking TV deal worth £5.136 billion for the seasons 16/17 through 18/19. That's around £1.7bn per year. In comparison, the Bundesliga TV deal is worth £610m for the 16/17 season; roughly a third. Naturally, it sparked debate about possible changes that could be made to close that financial gap. The first, quite concrete option would be to have one Bundesliga game on Monday. Similar to Monday Night Football in the Premier League. It would take the number of kick-off times to 6: Friday 8.30pm [in weeks without International break], Saturday 3.30pm (Konferenz/Simulcast), Saturday 6.30pm, Sunday 3.30 and 5.30pm and possibly Monday 8.30pm. Since a split like that would leave only 4 games for the Konferenz, it is questionable whether a) the Monday night game would be a weekly feature or b) whether, in an attempt to match the Spanish model, the remaining four Konferenz games would be given their own kick-off time as well. 

The main issue the Bundesliga has to tackle however, is not the number of different kick-off times, but rather the selection of matches for the prime spots. The main spot, the highlight or top match is seen as the Saturday, 6.30pm kick-off. Let's have a look at the matches in the Rückrunde.

Leverkusen - Dortmund (0*)

Hamburg - Hannover (2*)

Frankfurt - Schalke (3*)

Köln - Hannover (3*)

*number of Saturday matches that would have been more attractive.

A main factor in the scheduling and in the subsequent selection of, on paper, rather unattractive matches is the fact that according to the Sky TV deal, each team is only allowed to play in that slot six times a season - which limits the possibilities. The problem remains the same. A large number of games that are in single slots lose out to the ones that are played Saturday 3.30pm. Now, the Konferenz (Simulcast) is big inside Germany and  great fun to watch, but it might not be as big a pull globally as for instance Super Sunday in the Premier League. However, it always has to be taken into account that unlike in England, every Bundesliga match is available for viewing on Sky Germany - no matter the kick-off time [which coincidentally drives down the price per televised game even further to]. So it could be argued that especially for advertising the league inside Germany, scheduling does not have the same impact as it has globally.

That dynamic, of national and international rights, is a further area that sets leagues like the BPL and the Bundesliga apart. While the Bundesliga may not be as attractive as the BPL, and they are still losing out on a lot of money, the main difference in terms of the big bucks has to be the national rights. With the BPL, ever since BT emerged as a serious competitor for Sky, the amount of money spent on the TV deal has skyrocketed. Competition like that does not really exist in Germany. The Bundesliga can push Sky Germany up to a certain limit, but eventually, they'll be the ones taking the deal. Adding to that, Pay-TV simply isn't as big in Germany as it is in the UK; meaning there is less money to spend on Bundesliga or any rights in general.

Another issue would be the competitiveness of the league. Sure, Bayern are running away with the league again - but title race isn't the only selling point of the league. Competitive football and money will always be directly linked. The more money there is in the league, the more competitive the league is. The more competitive the league is, the more money there will be. As seen with the latest BPL deal, in terms of revenue, all 20 BPL teams will soon be in Europe's top 30, financially speaking. Meaning more talent will go there. It'll become more competitive and so on. Hence the difference between top clubs and smaller clubs is much larger in German football than it is in the BPL. While this may be considered as natural and how sports work, it impacts the way the game is seen and played and how attractive it is to the average customer. 

At the end of the day, it is unlikely that the Bundesliga will be able to close the financial gap to the BPL any time soon. Meaning it will be down to the individual clubs to maximise their financial potential. A lot of clubs are currently doing so by inviting strategic partners into the club; raising millions on top of other sponsorship deals. Yet a lot of clubs should be doing significantly better, still. Especially those clubs with a advantage of site, so to speak. Clubs like Berlin for instance. Not only are they the only club within a 130 mile radius, they are also the German capital. I only quite really realised this lately, but the Bundesliga is the only major European league that lacks a strong team from its Capital city. PSG in France; Arsenal, Chelsea and Tottenham in England; Real and Atletico in Spain, Roma and Lazio in Italy or Benfica and Sporting in Portugal. Germany has Hertha BSC. A club that lately has spent more time fighting relegation than anything else. It could be argued that this would just be another club, but capital cities are leading clubs all over Europe. The league benefits from having them and those clubs are strong because they are located where they are. Being a capital is a massive pull factor and the Bundesliga certainly loses a key player. 

All those aspects considered, the Bundesliga is still a hugely exciting league with terrific talent. It is, as it stands, simply not as marketable as the BPL. Less money also always leads to innovation, new coaching and tactics - to make up for the lack in quality. The Bundesliga is still also more fan friendly, because not every game is dictated by the TV companies. How long that will last? We will have to wait and see.